COP28: triumph or disaster?
The view from cities
Climate advocates were sceptical about the holding of COP28 in the UAE, and with good reason. It’s a country whose economy is built on fossil fuels, and it named the head of its state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to be the President of the COP. What could possibly go wrong?
The advocates seemed to be proven right when COP President Dr Sultan Al Jaber—normally an elegant and refined presence—said there was no science behind a fossil fuel phase-out and that it was “not possible unless you wanted to take the world back into caves.”
Dr Al Jaber’s statement followed the concerning reports that ADNOC officials had been promoting fossil fuels during their meetings with foreign governments that should have focused on climate negotiations. All seemed to confirm that the fossil fuel industry had yet to move on from its anti-science attitude. And yet, for the first time ever, the final statement of a COP called for the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Science shows a fossil fuel phase-out is necessary, now we may hope we can make it happen.
That’s an incredible result, and credit can be broadly shared, but the role of Mayors shouldn’t be overlooked. C40’s Mayors and Co-Chairs took an early decision that the phase-out of fossil fuels had to be fought for at this COP because science demands it—it’s the only way we can retain any hope of halving fossil fuel use by 2030, the necessary precondition to having any chance of keeping overall average temperature rise to 1.5°C degrees. C40 supported the UN Secretary-General in his call for action and worked with civil society, the COP President, and others to ensure a broad understanding of the urgency of such a phase-out. The fact that these Mayors are all already undertaking actions to rapidly diminish the world’s reliance on fossil fuels is a powerful statement of possibility.
The timescales of international diplomacy remain the biggest challenge. It has taken 28 COP meetings over 29 years to get here, but time is running out and bold action needs to be undertaken without delay. Will the world move fast enough? The legacy of inaction by governments and an active refusal to act by fossil fuel giants suggests that the hard work has just begun, and in some ways, the hardest work is only starting now. Having agreed on a destination, each country must navigate its way there.
There are reasons to be hopeful about the world’s ability and willingness to act. Under the quiet insistence of Dr Al Jaber—who left COP with the standing of a credible and effective President, notwithstanding his background and his gaffe—and with the support of Mike Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York City, and his Bloomberg Philanthropies, significant strides were made to empower cities—the real doers in climate action.
First, Dr Al Jaber called for a restructuring of the COP process to include cities, who for the first time were welcomed into the “blue zone” (effectively, it is like letting them be the room where negotiations happen, though not quite at the negotiating table).
Second, over 70 national governments committed to integrating subnational governments, including cities, in their climate strategies by endorsing the CHAMP (Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships) for Climate Action.
All of which is positive. But, at the same time, national governments continue to allow and subsidise fossil fuel use and exploration, failing to steer efforts and funding to the technologies that will solve the problem. And there is so much more to be done to finance action in and for Global South countries—so often the hardest hit by the extreme weather events caused by the excess burning of fossil fuels, while carrying the least responsibility for it.
After COP28, a big question remains: will the world commit the resources and the action needed to make the transition happen as rapidly as needed and in the just way that ethics require? It's possible to be thrilled that this COP was rescued and at the same time deeply worried about what is to come.
Until next time,
💡 From the Journal of City Climate Policy and Economy
Oslo is Demonstrating Ambitious Leadership through its Climate Budget
Commentary
Raymond Johansen, former Governing Mayor of Oslo.
The City of Oslo has implemented a whole-of-government approach to anchor climate across city decision-making through a process called climate budgeting. The Oslo Climate Budget is the first of its kind in that it integrates the climate targets into the financial budgets. The Oslo Climate Budget helps achieve the following goals: tracking greenhouse gas emissions alongside finances, distributing the responsibility for reaching emission reduction targets across the city government and organisation, and ensuring transparency around actions and potential deviations from targets.
You can read the full article here and find out more about Climate Budgeting on C40’s Knowledge Hub.
📚 What am I reading
David Miller: Behind the Glass, by Michael Lambek. A book about a house by brilliant architect Mies Van Der Roe, and the Austrian/German Jewish family that commissioned it, in 1928. It's as much about the house—a modernist gem of windows and few walls—as the family, forced to flee pre-war and unable to return post.