IPCC Report: We still have a chance to avert the ‘climate time-bomb’
The window to keep global temperatures below 1.5°C is rapidly closing. The decisions we make in the next seven years will determine the outcomes for the planet for the thousands of years.
This is the sober tone of the most recent IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, released two weeks ago. Years of peer-reviewed research on the causes and impacts of the climate crisis were synthesised into an 85 page report, concluding that due to continued global emissions, we are likely to at least temporarily overshoot the 1.5°C threshold in the 2030s.
However, as the UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres points out, we also have a chance to defuse the ‘climate time-bomb’. The Secretary General says that AR6 “...is a survival guide for humanity. As it shows, the 1.5°C limit is achievable. But it will take a quantum leap in climate action.”
To illustrate this point, this graph from the report is jarring. It shows that collectively, the world is not doing nearly enough to reduce the level of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, let alone limit global heating to 1.5°C.
Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023
While the report is dire, it outlines the myriad actions that can be taken to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown.
The good news? Many of these solutions are already available today and cities are demonstrating the types of 1.5°C compatible climate actions that will help to defuse the climate time bomb. From investing in sustainable modes of transportation, improving the efficiency of buildings, shifting to renewable sources of energy and implementing innovative adaptation strategies, the tools to rapidly decrease global emissions are at our fingertips.
Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023
Not only do we know the actions that need to be taken, but the IPCC recommends that they need to happen at a much quicker pace - and across all sectors and systems. The IPCC recommends that industrialised nations move up their net zero targets, as close as possible to 2040, demonstrating the necessity to move even further and faster on climate action.
Another clear takeaway: we must keep all fossil fuels in the ground. There is no place for new oil and gas exploration in a 1.5°C world. I’ve written previously about C40’s research on the cost of fossil gas, and how cities are leading on actions to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels. While the science is indisputable, regrettably, many oil and gas firms are engaging in a dual tactic of pursuing clean energy technologies while expanding fossil fuel production. Which the IPCC has made clear, yet again, isn’t compatible with a climate safe future.
This report should be heeded as a final warning, given the next IPCC report will be issued after the window closes to avert climate breakdown. However, it should inspire hope that we still have an opportunity, albeit a shrinking one, to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown. City led action is demonstrating what this looks like - but we must accelerate these efforts across all systems and sectors to avert the ticking climate bomb.
What I’m reading
Escape from Overshoot (Economics for a Planet in Peril) by Peter Victor - an economists guide to our potential collective path to avoid climate breakdown
Until next time,