Eight of the ten most populous countries in the world are heading to the polls in 2024. If the recent successes of far-right candidates in Argentina and the Netherlands are any indication, it’s going to be a tough year for climate-conscious politics.
Progressive candidates looking to get elected to champion green policies should take a good look at their colleagues in Germany, who are finding out the hard way about the political challenges of delivering a green and just transition.
Notes from Greens in trouble
Germany’s responsibility for the climate crisis is undeniable. Germany is one of the four countries that has historically been responsible for half of global CO2 emissions since 1751, yet it was also one of the first countries where public consciousness of the issue led to the establishment of a national Green Party.
After 16 years at the opposition of Angela Merkel’s centre-right governments, in 2021 the German Greens formed a coalition government with the centre-left and the liberal parties (the Social Democratic Party and the Free Democratic Party) on a platform of climate action and social justice. But after two turbulent years in power—in which they have had to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis that followed—they have fallen out of favour with the electorate, losing ground in important State elections that took place in Germany in 2023.
Their struggles raise questions about how to regain the favour of a disgruntled electorate, having effectively become the scapegoat for everything that’s wrong with German politics. The Greens’ attempts to be pragmatic by defending highway and airport extensions against the protest of environmental activists in the State of Hessen failed to win them enough votes to re-form a coalition with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, with whom they had governed the State for 10 years. In Berlin, they tried to ride a more traditional green ticket by fighting for the pedestrianisation of one of Berlin’s central streets, but that wasn’t enough to capture voters’ imagination either.
Stuck in a bubble
It is hard to pinpoint one political decision or tactic that has caused this fallout. Perhaps a closer look at Green voter behaviour can offer some clues. A recent study by the German Institute for Societal Cohesion on ‘entkoppelte Lebenswelten’ (the fragmentation of German society into homogenous groups) showed that 62% of Green voters socialise mainly with people who share their political views—a level of isolation that is far more pronounced among this group than many others such as older people or immigrants. Moreover, Green voters are especially disengaged from and even openly hostile towards the often less educated, lower earning voters of the far-right party Alternative for Germany.
This alienation is a gift to climate delayers, as the lack of dialogue between groups stops them from recognising and tackling shared concerns. In a 2023 study, sociologist Steffen Mau found that all groups across the socio-economic spectrum are concerned about climate change and its impacts. The source of disagreement between different groups lies in the proposed approaches to addressing this challenge. And that makes sense. People on low wages have historically been hit hardest from any changes in the economy (recessions, offshoring of manufacturing), so they would prioritise different needs and favour different incentives in the context of let’s say the energy transition. A recent working paper of this trend in the USA also suggests that less educated people prefer “pre-distribution” policies (job guarantees, higher minimum wages, stronger unions), while more educated ones prefer redistributive ones (taxes and transfers).
Keep calm and listen
So, how can candidates increase the popularity of much-needed climate action policies across a widely diverging voter base? The answer is not new but rarely taken seriously enough: we don't know. And instead of becoming defeatist, it is time to own this knowledge gap and start listening. Professor Jim Macnamara from the University of Sydney has been making the case for better organisational listening as the missing link in public communication for years, yet, as numerous seemingly tone-deaf Green campaigns and policies show, the listening element is often the least developed of any political and communications strategy. Cities are ideally positioned for this listening exercise as they are often closer to voters than national governments.
If climate-conscious candidates spent only half the time and resources they dedicate to analysing and debating their opponents’ attacks on listening to the broader electorate’s concerns, they will stand a better chance of winning in 2024.
🎧 Listen to the Cities 1.5 Podcast
For a deeper dive on communicating climate policies, you can revisit this episode (on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, too) featuring Andrea Everett, Senior Director of Survey Research and Data Science at Climate Nexus, and Lori Lodes, Executive Director of Climate Power.
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📚 What we are reading
: Lampedusa - a moving novel about age, love, and caring: a colleague shared this article on "the impossible love of fossil fuel companies for carbon taxes". The author argues it's about defeating the coal competition and shifting the responsibilities of carbon emissions to elected officials and consumers. Classic fossil fuel companies.And now for something completely different, Triodos Investment Management (the investment arm of ethical Dutch bank Triodos, with over $6bn of assets under management) published their 2024 Outlook. It echoes the perspective of our Cities Economic Outlook #2 and calls for a transformation of our society towards a post-growth economy, highlighting how our growth addiction threatens climate action. Fancy seeing that from a bank.
: Dante's 'Inferno'. This amazing Carlos Ruiz Zafon quote from a short story entitled 'Apocalipsis en dos minutos' in his last book La ciudad de vapor is what carries me through when the going gets tough:Scrolling through his phone on the day the world is ending, the narrator finds himself with a fallen angel that tells him the following with reference to Dante’s circles of hell: Ella era un ángel caído enviado desde abajo para asegurar que las pobres almas como la mía encontrarán su camino hacia el décimo círculo del infierno de manera ordenada. «Pensé que sólo había nueve círculos allí», objeté. «Tuvimos que añadir uno para todos los que han vivido su vida como si fueran a vivir para siempre».
I always found that this exchange is very poignant and could just as well be about climate change!